AFC Wimbledon face Torquay United in the FA Trophy on Saturday

AFC Wimbledon eye Cup shock

Saturday February 2, 2008

FA Trophy Third Round Proper

AFC Wimbledon v Torquay United

Prices correct at time of writing (2pm, Wednesday January 30, 2008).

Home 16/5 Draw 12/5 Away 8/11

This is a real Cup romance game and is the biggest match in AFC Wimbledon's history. Torquay go there flying high in second place in the Blue Square Premier after their 1-0 win over Histon on Monday but they had to battle for that victory. They won't fancy this trip to AFC Wimbledon at all and if there is to be a really big shock it's quite possible it could be here.

Torquay would be more than happy to be out of the FA Trophy in one way because they want to concentrate on their charge towards getting back into the Football League and at 16/5 I think AFC Wimbledon will give you a really good run for your money. Certainly it would be a romantic story if they ended up winning.

Verdict: Home win

Aldershot Town v Braintree Town

Home 4/11 Draw 3/1 Away 13/2

This is a match that should be an absolute banker for the home side. At 4/11 you're going to have to take big odds-on but I don't see that as being too much of a problem. Aldershot bounced back to winning ways with a 1-0 win against Oxford in midweek and I'm going to take them to win against Braintree.

Verdict: Home win

Burton Albion v Histon

Home 4/6 Draw 12/5 Away 7/2

Burton beat Rushden & Diamonds 2-1 on Tuesday night to remain fourth in the Blue Square Premier table. Albion are now three points ahead of Cambridge, who lost 1-0 at home to Exeter. Home advatage is likely to be significant here and I think Nigel Clough's men will edge this clash against fellow Blue Square Premier side Histon. Being at home in the Cup is all-important and I think Burton will win this match and reach the fourth-round proper.

Verdict: Home win

Crawley Town v Droylsden

Home 2/5 Draw 3/1 Away 11/2

I wouldn't expect struggling Droylsden to get anything here but this is the FA Trophy and the Cup gives the Bloods the chance to get away from their troubles in the Blue Square Premier. But once again I like the home side and I think Crawley are a banker bet to reach the latter stages.

The Red Devils have a good record at home in the league and have won nine, drawn two and lost two so far this season. Droylsden have won none, drawn two and lost 11 on the road in the league and although this is the Cup, I expect that form to continue and Crawley to go through.

Verdict: Home win

Ebbsfleet United v Weymouth

Home 4/7 Draw 13/5 Away 4/1

Weymouth are just five points above fourth-from-bottom Farsley Celtic and having parted company with Jason Tindall have turned to the experienced John Hollins to steady the ship. Hollins guided Swansea to promotion when he was down there and was a folk hero at Chelsea in his time. His experience is certainly going to be crucial and he's got a Cup tie to look forward to against Ebbsfleet . That could be just the type of filip the club needs to cause a surprise. I think it's a positive appointment and great news for Weymouth.

Weymouth are not a bad price at 4/1 but realistically a draw is the best they can hope for and I think John Hollins will get a draw. 13/5 looks tempting for a replay, with Ebbsfleet pretty short at 4/7. I'm going to go for a replay here, a draw at 13/5.

Verdict: Draw

Stafford Rangers v Tamworth

Home 5/6 Draw 12/5 Away 13/5

This is a Staffordshire derby and I can't believe Blue Square North side Tamworth are 13/5. I think this is the bet of the weekend. I really fancy them at the price. Stafford are struggling and lost 5-1 at home to Salisbury in the league last Saturday. Rangers still haven't won at home in the league this season, with four draws and 10 defeats. They're bottom of the Blue Square Premier and their confidence will be very low. Tamworth look over the odds and I think that they've got a great chance to go on and do the business.

Verdict: Away win

Halifax Town v Rushden & Diamonds

Home 5/4 Draw 11/5 Away 9/5

Halifax drew 2-2 at Northwich in the Blue Square Premier last Saturday, while Rushden & Diamonds lost 2-1 at Burton in midweek. Halifax's record at home in the league is won five, drawn six and lost one, while Rushden have won four, drawn four and lost seven on the road. With that form in mind, I'm going for Halifax Draw No Bet.

Verdict: Halifax Draw No Bet

Sunday February 3, 2008

Farsley Celtic v York City

Home 9/4 Draw 9/4 Away evens

Farsley earned a creditable 0-0 draw at home to high-flyers Stevenage in their last league match and their record at home in the league is won three, drawn five and lost six. York have improved in recent weeks to climb up the table to 11th spot. They have an outside chance of making the play-offs and got a superb 2-0 win over leaders Aldershot last Saturday. The Minsternmen also have a good away record so far this season, with seven wins, three draws and three defeats on the road. On current form, I'm going for York to progress to the next round.

Verdict: Away win

Angus Loughran Best Bets

Tamworth 13/5

Aldershot / Burton / Crawley treble

AFC Wimbleon 16/5

Banker Bet

Burton 4/6